Latest Episode

The Hillary-Bernie Swing State Matchup (updated)

The Hillary-Bernie Swing State Matchup (updated)

by Kevin Kelton

Yes, at one point Bernie Sanders won 7 out of 8 straight contests, plus some impressive victories in Michigan and Wisconsin, and he’s poised to win a few more in May. Yet that is only a partial snapshot of what has happened in his contest with Hillary Cintin this primary season. To date, Clinton has won 27 contests (including American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands) and Sanders has won 20 (including Democrats Abroad).

But let’s narrow things down what really counts in a presidential election: swing states. There are 12 purple states in 2016. Hillary has won primaries or caucuses in 8 of them (OH, FL, VA, NC, MO, NV, IA, AZ) and Bernie has 4 (WI, NH, CO, MI).

In the four largest must-win swing states – the ones that truly determine presidential elections – Hillary has won by double digits.

Ohio: 57% – 43%
Florida: 64% – 33%
Virginia: 64% – 35%
No. Carolina: 55% – 41%

Plus, she racked up landslide wins in Pennsylvania* and New York, two blue states that Trump claims he could be competitive in.

Now, it’s true that winning a primary does not guarantee that a nominee will carry that state in the fall. Nor does losing a primary mean you can’t win it in the general. But the primary system is the most reliable data we have to see which candidate plays best in the various states. And in the swing states, Hillary Clinton is playing damn well.

We can’t know what will happen in the upcoming states, including three big ones (NM, NJ, and CA), but they won’t change the dynamic of the swing state race.

So regardless of all the talk about Sanders’ momentum and energizing young voters, Hillary has walked the walk by winning handily where it counts. She dominated the key swing states that the GOP cannot win without. On that metric alone, she’s passed the test.

And that is why superdelegates have every right to continue to back her. Their job is to send the strongest general election candidate into battle against Donald Trump or whomever the other side nominates. By winning more votes, more states, more delegates, and more swing states, she has proven herself to be that candidate.

Hillary will continue to win her share of states and delegates and will be the Democratic nominee. And she earned it.

 

* Editor’s note: Some people claim Pennsylvania is also a swing state. But PA has gone blue in every presidential election since 1992, and since 1960 it has only gone red four times – and all were GOP landslide elections (1972, 1980, 1984, 1988).

Discover and navigate topics related to this podcast article by using the tags below

Not finding what your looking for? Try a search

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *