The argument goes like this:

“If Donald Trump goes into the convention 30 or 50 delegates shy of 1237, they can’t deny him the nomination. The people would revolt!”

But that logic is wrong, because it does not take into consideration the series of steps that would occur before another nominee emerged. It wouldn’t just go from Trump falling a few votes short to Cruz being crowned. It would be a slow, constantly evolving scenario that would make the process more palatable.

Here’s the way it would most likely go down:

1. First ballot: Trump gets only 1200 or so votes – a couple of dozen votes short! A cheer goes up. Trump people are booing. Lots of gavel banging. Bedlam. Convention Chairman Paul Ryan calls a one-hour recess to regroup.
2. The power players jump into action. Lots of backroom dealing and maneuvering. Most of the pledged delegates are now released, and they’re being pressured to change (or stick with) their candidate. They get called personally by major party leaders – senators, congressmen and governors they’ve never spoken to before – who lobby them to dump Trump for the good of the party. Meanwhile, Trump is calling the other candidates to see if any would take the vp slot in return for their votes, but they aren’t biting. No one knows where things stand. Ryan reconvenes the convention.
3. Second ballot: This time, Trump only gets 1050 votes (or less) and Cruz now has that many more. Or he and Kasich split the switched votes, and a few go to new names like Ryan or Romney. More pandemonium and gavel banging. Another recess, this time overnight so everyone can “start fresh” in the morning. As if anyone is going to get any sleep. Ha!
4. Now things really start to move. New names are floated. Rumors abound. There’s talk of some kind of unity ticket. Trump is desperately trying to convince Cruz or Kasich to throw their votes to him in exchange for vp. It may or may not work. They may not even take his phone call. Without one of them, there is no way for him to ADD delegates. All he can do now is continue to bleed more delegates with every ballot. Trump holds an angry press conference (if he hasn’t already) threatening the RNC with lawsuits if they deny him his nomination. He threatens an independent run. And he’s calling everyone else every dirty name in the book. Megyn Kelly, look out! This is somehow your fault.
5. Third ballot: Either Trump struck a vp deal, or he ends this ballot at around 875 votes (or lower) and Cruz and someone else have emerged as the main alternative. Maybe Cruz has 790, Kasich has 580 and the rest are scattered among Romney, Ryan, Rubio and God knows who else. (Favorite sons abound!) But what’s clear is that Trump is fading fast, and whatever claim he had on the nomination coming into the convention is as much history as his first two marriages.

At this point, the party elites would no longer be robbing Trump…because he doesn’t have all those delegates anymore. Do you see the difference? They aren’t robbing the guy who had 49% of the delegates yesterday. They are choosing between the guy who today has only 38% and the other guys who have 32% and 24%. He still leads but his opponents are within striking distance and the trend line is definitely anti-Trump. He hasn’t lost yet, but he’s no longer the prohibitive favorite. That is the new reality. That is the race. Meanwhile, the party leaders are jockeying to see who they can put up that could become a consensus choice.

Once Trump is no longer within striking distance, the argument that the convention is “robbing him” becomes weaker and weaker. He’ll still claim he’s getting robbed, and his most ardent supporters will be screaming and protesting. But the rationale that the convention has to give it to him no longer applies. It hasn’t since the first ballot.

And that’s the way it happens at a contested convention. History is replete with them. With each ballot, the reality changes. Whoever emerges as the ultimate nominee gives a rousing acceptance speech, lots of balloons drop, and life goes on.

So no, it won’t be a case of Trump being robbed of a nomination that was rightfully his. It will be a case of someone who came awfully close but never closed the deal.

And you don’t have to read The Art of the Deal to know that a deal that was never closed is a deal that never was.