Reality Check for Nervous Dems

Hey, Democrats. Reality check time. Here goes…

  1. No, Hillary Clinton is not going to blow Donald Trump away by ten points. Or eight. Maybe not even five. Those kinds of national blowouts may be a thing of the past. But it’s certainly not going to happen in this bifurcated political environment, especially with two nationally known third and fourth party candidates in the mix. It’s going to be close. Most elections are.
  2. It would have been the same way if Bernie had been nominated. Anyone who thinks he’d be coasting to the presidency by now is deluding themselves. Democrats have to scrap and scrape to win every national election. JFK won by 112,000 votes. Jimmy Carter won by less than 1,700,000 votes. Bill Clinton won in ’92 with only 43% of the vote. Al Gore won the popular vote by half a million but lost the election. There are no guaranteed or easy presidential elections. So let go of it.
  3. You know that most-dirty-campaign-in-history you’ve been gearing up for since May? It hasn’t even started yet…but it’s about to. The Monica and Gennifer attacks are going to start coming in an avalanche of TV ads and Trump inspired PR stunts. With his back against the wall, the slime factor in the last two debates will be unprecedented. And as election day nears, Trump will revert to form and become unhinged, trying to snatch victory from the jaws of a humiliating defeat. Which means you are going to be sick to your stomach for much of October. Sorry. Not my fault. I’m just the messenger.
  4. No, you’re not going to wake up on election day knowing the outcome. Sorry, but we didn’t know in 2008 or 2012. You don’t get a special landslide pass this year, no matter how weak a candidate you think Donald Trump is. There are no “gimmes” in presidential elections. You’re going to have to sweat out the day and the evening returns just like the old days. As the saying goes, “On any given Sunday, any team in the NFL can beat any other team.” It’s the same with presidential politics. Just ask Thomas E. Dewey. Since then, even LBJ and Reagan sweated out election returns. So get used to that now.
  5. There will be election day shenanigans, like long voting lines, error-prone voter rolls, photo ID abuses, missing ballots, and suspicious voting machine glitches. The GOP will stop at nothing to stop Hillary Clinton. We will just have to overwhelm them with turnout and staying power.
  6. Clinton and her supporters may get a nerve-racking surprise or two that night. One or two swing states that should’ve gone blue may not, because this is a base turnout election, and the Democratic base has been raided more than usual this cycle by Johnson, Stein and millennial malaise.
  7. Election night will be a long nail-biter, and it may turn into post-election day before we know the winner. BUT…

Hillary will win. No, I can’t say that with 100% certainty…for the reasons above. But I’m pretty confident of it.

Why? Because I can read polls, spot trends and understand the electoral map. And because I believe in the inherent wisdom of the American body politic. Most millennials and liberals will ultimately realize the stakes of this election and come back to the Democratic fold, and blacks will turn out. I just know it.

So don’t be thrown by the final dead cat bounce of the Bernie or Bust movement. Don’t become unhinged with dire news reports of “enthusiasm gaps” or the “hidden white vote.” Don’t let every swing state dip or tightened poll hang over you like a Sword of Damocles. We have the smartest and most prepared candidate. We have the best field of surrogates, including a very popular president and vice president. And most important of all, we are right on the issues.

Sure, a popular vote mandate would be nice. But you only have to win by  2 electoral votes. It may be uncomfortable for the next month or so, but if we all do our part – passionately advocating for Hillary on social media, phone banking, registering voters, and helping get voters to the polls on election day, and staying focused and positive – we will prevail.

No, I can’t promise it. But I am very confident that on election night or soon after, we’ll all be watching Donald Trump give his pompous, arrogant concession speech and wondering how we ever thought that clown could really be elected and what all the angst and sleepless nights were all about.

And you’ll be right.

Kevin Kelton is co-host of the More Perfect Union podcast and founder of the Facebook political debate group, Open Fire.

Join ‘OPEN FIRE’ now !
Listen to the ‘MORE PERFECT UNION’ podcast now !

Don’t Score the Debate Until SNL Does

Immediately after Monday night’s debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, the cable networks will use pundits and flash polls to try to tell you who won. Don’t believe them. On Tuesday they will parade out campaign surrogates and online polls to tell you who won. Don’t believe them. On Wednesday and Thursday they will use newspaper editorials and major national polls to tell you who won. And you may think by then you know how it all played out.

But you still won’t.

Don’t score the first presidential debate until Saturday Night Live lampoons it when the show returns for its 42nd season on October 1, and the news media reacts to that event. Only then will you know who really came out on top.

Though it’s only a comedy show, SNL has set the national perception for presidential debates going back four decades. Political pundits can analyze and deconstruct the real matchup, but well-written satire almost always creates the more lasting – and damaging – impression. Read More

Stop Blaming Hillary for Iraq

I was on a thread in my Facebook political group, Open Fire, arguing with hardcore liberals who still blame Hillary Clinton for the Iraq War because of her vote for the 2002 Iraq War Resolution. But when I asked them these questions, I got nothing back:

1) Who did you vote for in 2004? If you voted for Sen. John Kerry and Sen. John Edwards, you voted for two of the senators who voted with Hillary for the War Resolution. So why was it okay to support them for the White House but not her? Read More

Born In the U.S.A.

On this week’s “A More Perfect Union” podcast, the gang discusses Donald Trump’s admission that Barack Obama was indeed born in the United States, the mass hysteria of hatred toward Hillary Clinton, whether Bernie Sanders can still move millennials back toward Clinton, and what we might see in the first presidential debate. Hosted by D.J. McGuire, Greg Matusak, Cliff Dunn, and Kevin Kelton.

Check out this episode!

If you like talking politics, join us on Facebook in OPEN FIRE, our political group where you can discuss news and politics with Kevin, D.J., Emily, Greg, Cliff, and lots of other smart, fun people.

Show Me That Voter

by Kevin Kelton

Show me that voter. Show me that guy who is now thinking, “Hm…I was going to vote for Hillary Clinton. I prefer her positions and her values, and I think she’d make a better president than Donald Trump. But now that she might be in less-than-perfect health, I think I have to vote for Trump. Because, should Hillary die in office, God forbid that Tim Kaine becomes president!”

Really? Do you really think that voting logic exists? I mean, sure, I guess in a country of 330 million people, there might be a handful of voters – even several dozen – who could come to that warped conclusion. Because any crazy thing you can think of will probably occur to some idiot someplace.

But really, does anyone in the news media or in politics really think that there is a treasure trove of leaning-Hillary voters out there who would have to toss a coin to decide whether to vote for Donald Trump or Tim Kaine?!

Read More

Hillary’s Health Scare

This is episode 51 of the “A More Perfect Union” podcast series. Hosts D.J. McGuire, Greg Matusak, Emily Brewer, Cliff Dunn, and Kevin Kelton discuss Hillary Clinton’s 9/11 health scare, Donald Trump’s performance at the Commander-in-Chief forum, Matt Lauer’s lousy job as moderator of that forum, and Gary Johnson’s Aleppo gaffe.

Check out this episode!

If you want to join our debate on Facebook, join Open Fire, the best debate group on Facebook!

Trump’s Taco Trucks


Taco Truck Tuesday for the Trump campaign

Gary Johnson’s big endorsement

Great debate flops (including Ronald Reagan)

Who’d gain most if Johnson is in the debates?

Jill Stein’s city mixup

Why John Kasich is a donkey butt (of sorts)

Send us your questions!

Check out this episode

If you like talking politics, join us on Facebook in OPEN FIRE, our political group where you can discuss news and politics with Kevin, D.J., Emily, Greg, Cliff, and lots of other smart, fun people.

I’m Not You, But…

I’m not a woman, and probably never will be. (Sorry, guys.) But if I were a woman, I couldn’t see voting for anyone but Hillary Clinton. Not BECAUSE she’s a woman. But because her policies and career prove her to be a passionate advocate for the issues that most directly affect women’s lives. Trump’s policies will make it harder for single working mothers to pay for childcare, harder to get health insurance, harder to afford college and, by the way he is vociferously supporting Roger Ailes, probably harder to deter sexual harassment in the workplace. Hillary Clinton says “women’s rights are human rights.” Donald Trump never says a single word about either.
I’m not black. But if I were, I couldn’t see voting for anyone but Hillary Clinton. How could blacks even think of voting for Donald Trump, who took sides against the BLM movement in favor of tougher policing and a crackdown on violent crime (which he implies is mostly caused by blacks and illegal immigrants). Trump says he wants to “crack down” on inner city street crime. But everyone who’s paying attention knows that means cracking down with stop and frisk, presumptive policing, racial and ethnic profiling, longer prison sentencing guidelines, more death penalty prosecutions, and Kent State style militarized responses to civil protest. Trump doesn’t care about black people; he cares about white people who are suspicious of black people. Hillary Clinton used the term “super predator” once twenty years ago. Trump uses the word “thug” as often as a first name. Donald Trump’s America is a conceal carry America, a George Zimmerman America, a Philando Castile America, and a Sandra Bland America.

In fact, in Trump’s America, the photo above might just as easily look like this:

No, this is NOT a real photo. But that underlying message comes through in Trump's policies.

Read More

Is Trump Good for Israel?

One of the crazier outgrowths of this election year is how many of my Jewish liberal friends are planning to vote for Jill Stein or Gary Johnson instead of Hillary Clinton, making it more possible that Donald Trump could become our next president. I wonder if these staunch supporters of Israel’s right to exist have even thought about what it would mean for the Jewish state if Trump wins. Let’s take a look.

What are the biggest threats to Israel’s security these days?

  1. Iran developing nukes
  2. An emboldened Bashir al-Assad in Syria
  3. The development of a territorial Islamic State
  4. Growing regional tensions with Egypt, the Arab street, and northern Africa

In every one of those concerns, a Trump presidency vastly increases the risks. Read More

The Trump Shake-up


  • The Trump reset (“Regrets,” he’s had a few, but then again, too many to mention)
  • Trolling for black voters
  • How clean is The Clinton Foundation?
  • Will lefties lift Jill
  • My Blue Senate


Trump’s Gold Medal Gaffes


Olympic games politics

Obama’s very good day in Syria

Trump’s week of gold medal gaffes

Funny business at The Clinton Foundation

Will Gary Johnson make the debates?

Jill Stein courts Sanders voters


Donald’s Terrible, Awful, Not-So-Good Week


Could Gary Kroeger be the next Al Franken?

Gary channels Walter Mondale and Alan Alda (and millennials go, “Whaaaat?)

Donald Trump’s terrible, awful, not-so-good week (and Republicans go, “Whaaaat?”)

Hillary Clinton gets caught in a lie about lying (and the media goes, “Whaaaat?”)

Gary Johnson does a Town Hall (and 90% of America goes, “Whaaaat?”)

State of the Race