An urban myth of legendary proportions has built up around Donald Trump. The fable is that Trump defies all rules of politics and polling, so that no matter what deficiencies or giant screw ups he shows on the campaign trail, he will somehow turnout out masses of previously unidentified voters to defeat mere mortal politicians and install him in the Oval Office with ease.
I don’t buy it, and neither should you.
Sure, Trump surprised us all by vanquishing his 16 more experienced primary opponents. (Well, 15 more experience. I still don’t know what the heck Ben Carson was doing there.)
But he didn’t do it with black magic or voodoo. While all the pundits may have dismissed his chances, Trump was leading in almost every GOP primary poll since July 2015. So it wasn’t a Houdini trick that Trump won the primaries; it was our refusal to believe what was right in front of our own eyes. Continue reading Dispelling the Trump Invincibility Myth
Is violence at political events the new normal?
Does the violence issue help or hurt the Sanders campaign?
How much of the minority vote does Sanders actually need? Can he find it in the mid-west?
Is the Clinton Honduras scandal a thing? Like, really?
Why Ivanka Trump may be the most important person in American politics today
The Open SCOTUS Seat
Nevada, South Carolina and beyond
A look back at Iowa
On to New Hampshire
Reviewing the debates
The national mood, and why it sucks
Predictions going forward
Interview with an Iowa voter
T-minus 24 hours and counting
Final polls – what they tell us and what they don’t
Last GOP debate – sans Trump
Clinton’s “Top Secret” Emails
Where we think things will go from here
Regardless of what party you’re in or which candidate you support, it seems to me the presidential election comes down to one question: Which Democratic candidate can best withstand the GOP attack machine?
Regardless of whether Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, or John Kasich win the GOP nod, demographics and electoral college math suggest that Democrats are positioned to win in 2016 if their nominee can withstand the harshly negative general election campaign to come. There are two competing and somewhat equally plausible theories about that. In choosing a nominee, Democrats should envision each theory’s worst-case scenario and carefully game it out.
So let’s look at the two very precarious “nightmare” scenarios out there – be it Hillary Clinton’s negatives overwhelming her or Bernie Sanders being caricatured by the opposition.
Continue reading Democrats Need to Consider Worst-Case Scenarios
Michael Bloomberg considers a possible run
Ted Cruz’s college roommate takes to Twitter
The Des Moines Register endorses Rubio and Clinton
Sarah Palin enters the fray
The O’Malley factor in Iowa
The Democratic Debate
Bernie’s single payer plan
Who’s the weaker national candidate?
The GOP Debate
Bernie’s black endorsements add “street cred”
What a Trump presidency might look like
Does Donald Trump have the ground organization to cash in on his poll numbers?
Is Canadian born Ted Cruz qualified to be president?
What’s so special about Martin Van Buren?
Was President Obama’s Town Hall on guns a success for the president?
Will the gun issue be a decisive factor in the fall election?
Does Congress’s vote to repeal Obamacare mean anything?
I’m watching the movie “Anomalisa” yesterday (save your money). And you know how your mind wanders during a bad movie? So my thoughts start wandering to politics and the primary campaigns and all the angst and vitriol people are spewing over it all. “Hillary is corrupt!”… “Trump is a fascist!”… “Bernie’s a socialist!”… “Rubio wears high heels!”… “If my candidate doesn’t get the nomination, I’m voting third party and moving to Switzerland!”
And it suddenly occurs to me, I don’t really care that much who wins anymore. That’s right. I have officially stopped caring. And the universe is suddenly looking a whole lot brighter. 😃
Continue reading Enjoying the Political Super Bowl