Jeb Bush

Dispelling the Trump Invincibility Myth

An urban myth of legendary proportions has built up around Donald Trump. The fable is that Trump defies all rules of politics and polling, so that no matter what deficiencies or giant screw ups he shows on the campaign trail, he will somehow turnout out masses of previously unidentified voters to defeat mere mortal politicians and install him in the Oval Office with ease.

I don’t buy it, and neither should you.

Sure, Trump surprised us all by vanquishing his 16 more experienced primary opponents. (Well, 15 more experience. I still don’t know what the heck Ben Carson was doing there.)

But he didn’t do it with black magic or voodoo. While all the pundits may have dismissed his chances, Trump was leading in almost every GOP primary poll since July 2015. So it wasn’t a Houdini trick that Trump won the primaries; it was our refusal to believe what was right in front of our own eyes. Read More

Shadow of Scalia Falls over South Carolina

Segments:

GOP Debate

Democratic Debate

The Open SCOTUS Seat

Nevada, South Carolina and beyond

 

Episode 21: Onward, New Hampshire

Segments:

A look back at Iowa

On to New Hampshire

Reviewing the debates

The national mood, and why it sucks

Predictions going forward

 

Episode 20: Twenty-four Hours to Iowa

SEGMENTS:

Interview with an Iowa voter

T-minus 24 hours and counting

Final polls – what they tell us and what they don’t

Last GOP debate – sans Trump

Clinton’s “Top Secret” Emails

Where we think things will go from here

Episode 17: Cruz On His Heels; Trump on Mount Rushmore


 

Segments:

Does Donald Trump have the ground organization to cash in on his poll numbers?

Is Canadian born Ted Cruz qualified to be president? 

What’s so special about Martin Van Buren?

Was President Obama’s Town Hall on guns a success for the president?

Will the gun issue be a decisive factor in the fall election?

Does Congress’s vote to repeal Obamacare mean anything?

Our predictions.

Episode 16: Feel the Burn Rates

Segments:

  • State of the races
    • 2015 4th Quarter Fundraising and “burn rates” 
    • Martin O’Malley and Jim Gilmore did not qualify for state ballots
    • Bill hits campaign trail and Trump hits Bill 
    • Trump vows to spend 25 mil on advertising 
  • Obama on “Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee”
  • Obama’s Executive Action on guns
  • Oregon Militia stand-off

Episode 15: Comedy in Politics; Predictions for 2016

Segments:

Is Jeb Bush funny? Is Donald Trump funny?

Is a sense of humor important in presidential politics?

How we got into politics

Trump takes on Bill Clinton

Some Hillary vs. Bernie talk

Predictions for 2016

Episode 12: San Bernadino, Gun Politics and Trump

Segments:

Obama’s Oval Office Address: “Complex acts of terrorism”

The San Bernadino Shooting

The Politics of Guns – Where the Candidates Stand

Trump and the polls: Is he for real?

The pending government shutdown

 

Episode 11: The Planned Parenthood Shooting and Is Trump Really a Fascist?

Segments:

The Colorado Planned Parenthood shooting

Is Donald Trump truly a fascist?

Ben Carson’s Iowa poll dive and Ted Cruz’s poll rise

Bernie Sanders poll rise in New Hampshire

November presidential polls in 2016 vs 2012 vs 2008 

Episode 10: The ISIL Threat, Muslim Refugees, and Democratic Socialism

Segments:

Clinton and Rubio on their plans to defeat ISIL

Trump and Carson on Muslim refugees

Election Day 2015 – Louisiana governor’s race

Bernie Sanders’ “What is Democratic Socialism” speech

52nd anniversary of the JFK Assassination

Jindal drops out of race. Who’s next?

Episode 9: GOP Debate, Democratic Debate, and Million Student March

Segments:

GOP Debate

Democratic Debate

Million Student March

Is this now a foreign policy election?

 

Longing for the magic fix

bush-fix-it-AP

by Kevin Kelton

One of the reasons I think I have pretty good political sensibilities is that I actually listen and pay attention to details. So when Jeb Bush comes out with a new campaign slogan, “Jeb can fix it,” I take some time to consider why his campaign team would hinge it’s entire reboot — indeed, his entire campaign — on the words “fix it.”

It’s obvious they must have focus tested it to heaven and back. So what does that tell us? It tells us that their research indicates that voters are yearning for someone to “fix” what they perceive as a broken system…with lots of broken components. Whereas in 2000 voters were looking for decency and respectability (after the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal) and in 2008 they were looking for hope and change (after being disappointed with decency and respectability), now they are looking for an easy fix… one that can be embodied in one man. Just vote for him and your problems will begin to get fixed.

I think that explains the psychology of both parties’  races this year. Fifty-five percent of GOP voters are leaning toward an “outsider” whom they hope can make the magic fix (Trump, Carson or Fiorina), and 25-30% of the Democratic voters are looking for the same thing in Bernie Sanders. On the flip side, people who support Clinton, Rubio, O’Malley, Kasich, Bush, and a few of the other GOPers are looking for competency. They don’t expect a president to “fix” the system; they just want someone who can effectively manage an imperfect system and maybe get it back on course.

I think the general election will come down to this clash: voters that are wishing for a magic fix, and those that are content with a steady hand to manage the unwieldy ship of state. I fall into the latter category. I think we will prevail.

But I feel bad for the fix-it group. They will forever be longing for something that probably doesn’t exist, and hence forever bitter about their inability to make it real.