Today, instead of arguing the general election in words, let’s argue it in pictures. (And save me a thousand words.)
For every argument that Donald Trump can beat Hillary Clinton by turning out new, first-time white voters, there’s a picture that says, “No, he can’t.”
Continue reading Why Clinton Beats Trump…In Pictures
Will Trump run the table?
Will Sanders win outside of his home state?
Will D.J. leave the Republican party?
Will Trump give Rubio’s mom a job?
Democratic Nevada caucus and GOP South Carolina primary results
Chat with a Kasich SuperPac worker
Kasich canvases Jonah
Greg reveals the secret to why he loathes John Kasich
Dems in South Carolina and Repubs in Nevada
D.J. explains why a nominee Trump can’t carry the GOP vote
How Trump can circumvent campaign finance laws
Kevin explains why using superdelegates makes sense
Predictions – serious and silly
I love millennials. I even own one. Well, as much as a father can ever own an 18-year-old man. So when I read how energized and excited millennials are to vote this year, I am heartened by their newfound political activism. But am I impressed by their overwhelming choice to support Bernie Sanders? Not really.
Let’s remember, any 18-year-olds planning to cast their first vote for Sanders were only 10 when Barack Obama was elected. They were only 11-12 when Americans were torn apart by the Obamacare town hall debates that blew up across the country—far too young to have understood the deep divides that swirled around a new president’s efforts to radically change our healthcare system. And their 26-year-old millennial “elders” were only 18 or 19 back then. All their adult memories of presidential elections are of the good-guy Democrat winning, with no historical knowledge of how liberal candidates can get slaughtered in a national campaign. How can young people who have barely learned to drive understand the Mt. Everest-size speed bump that stands between a Sanders nomination and a Sanders administration?
Continue reading I Love Millennials…But…
The Open SCOTUS Seat
Nevada, South Carolina and beyond
Let’s talk electoral college math for a moment. Here’s why I’m so concerned about a Bernie Sanders candidacy. This is the electoral map as I see it. And I gave Bernie the benefit of the doubt in several states that I think might be tough for him (NJ, CA, WI). But looking at that map, I don’t see him getting to 270 from here, for these reasons:
IOWA – Sure, he had a great caucus showing. But let’s not forget that in a record turnout year, GOP turnout was still 15,415 higher than Dem turnout. And that’s with all the independents who crossed over to caucus for him, and with record under-30 turnout. So his “I’ll increased Democratic turnout” argument is already baked into the numbers. Plus in a general election, Bernie would bleed some moderate Iowa Dems who find him too liberal.
Continue reading Sanders’ Electoral Math
A look back at Iowa
On to New Hampshire
Reviewing the debates
The national mood, and why it sucks
Predictions going forward
Did you see all those “young people” caucusing for Bernie Sanders in Iowa yesterday? Most looked to be around 18-23, right? Very enthusiastic. Trying to convert other voters to come with the Sanders group, talking about how Bernie wants to give everyone free healthcare and free college. Inspiring, huh?
But you know what? They have no memory of the last eight years.
Continue reading Sanders Supporters’ Short-term Memory
Interview with an Iowa voter
T-minus 24 hours and counting
Final polls – what they tell us and what they don’t
Last GOP debate – sans Trump
Clinton’s “Top Secret” Emails
Where we think things will go from here
Yesterday I wrote a post about my concerns that Bernie Sanders would be taken apart by the rightwing attack machine should he win the Democratic nomination. While the response was mostly positive, many Sanders supporters dismissed my concerns as either the hysterical rants of a Hillary Clinton shill, or at odds with current inter-party polling match-ups that suggest Sanders would defeat GOP frontrunner Donald Trump handily in a national election. Still others argued that Sanders is leading a new political earthquake that will destroy all in his path.
So today I want to speak to that reaction. I base my concern about Sanders viability on my experience of having lived through the presidential elections of 1972, 1984, 1988, and 2004, when liberal candidates got defined by their opponents and ultimately trounced by their GOP opponents. (I don’t count 2000 because Al Gore won the popular vote.) I’ve seen people on Facebook dismiss those examples as being out of step for this year. Their arguments range from “no one could’ve beaten Ronald Reagan in 1984” to “Michael Dukakis was a weak candidate” to “young voters are being energized by Sanders and will turn out in record numbers.” Let’s look at each of those claims.
Continue reading The Sanders Earthquake