Reality Check for Nervous Dems

Hey, Democrats. Reality check time. Here goes…

  1. No, Hillary Clinton is not going to blow Donald Trump away by ten points. Or eight. Maybe not even five. Those kinds of national blowouts may be a thing of the past. But it’s certainly not going to happen in this bifurcated political environment, especially with two nationally known third and fourth party candidates in the mix. It’s going to be close. Most elections are.
  2. It would have been the same way if Bernie had been nominated. Anyone who thinks he’d be coasting to the presidency by now is deluding themselves. Democrats have to scrap and scrape to win every national election. JFK won by 112,000 votes. Jimmy Carter won by less than 1,700,000 votes. Bill Clinton won in ’92 with only 43% of the vote. Al Gore won the popular vote by half a million but lost the election. There are no guaranteed or easy presidential elections. So let go of it.
  3. You know that most-dirty-campaign-in-history you’ve been gearing up for since May? It hasn’t even started yet…but it’s about to. The Monica and Gennifer attacks are going to start coming in an avalanche of TV ads and Trump inspired PR stunts. With his back against the wall, the slime factor in the last two debates will be unprecedented. And as election day nears, Trump will revert to form and become unhinged, trying to snatch victory from the jaws of a humiliating defeat. Which means you are going to be sick to your stomach for much of October. Sorry. Not my fault. I’m just the messenger.
  4. No, you’re not going to wake up on election day knowing the outcome. Sorry, but we didn’t know in 2008 or 2012. You don’t get a special landslide pass this year, no matter how weak a candidate you think Donald Trump is. There are no “gimmes” in presidential elections. You’re going to have to sweat out the day and the evening returns just like the old days. As the saying goes, “On any given Sunday, any team in the NFL can beat any other team.” It’s the same with presidential politics. Just ask Thomas E. Dewey. Since then, even LBJ and Reagan sweated out election returns. So get used to that now.
  5. There will be election day shenanigans, like long voting lines, error-prone voter rolls, photo ID abuses, missing ballots, and suspicious voting machine glitches. The GOP will stop at nothing to stop Hillary Clinton. We will just have to overwhelm them with turnout and staying power.
  6. Clinton and her supporters may get a nerve-racking surprise or two that night. One or two swing states that should’ve gone blue may not, because this is a base turnout election, and the Democratic base has been raided more than usual this cycle by Johnson, Stein and millennial malaise.
  7. Election night will be a long nail-biter, and it may turn into post-election day before we know the winner. BUT…

Hillary will win. No, I can’t say that with 100% certainty…for the reasons above. But I’m pretty confident of it.

Why? Because I can read polls, spot trends and understand the electoral map. And because I believe in the inherent wisdom of the American body politic. Most millennials and liberals will ultimately realize the stakes of this election and come back to the Democratic fold, and blacks will turn out. I just know it.

So don’t be thrown by the final dead cat bounce of the Bernie or Bust movement. Don’t become unhinged with dire news reports of “enthusiasm gaps” or the “hidden white vote.” Don’t let every swing state dip or tightened poll hang over you like a Sword of Damocles. We have the smartest and most prepared candidate. We have the best field of surrogates, including a very popular president and vice president. And most important of all, we are right on the issues.

Sure, a popular vote mandate would be nice. But you only have to win by  2 electoral votes. It may be uncomfortable for the next month or so, but if we all do our part – passionately advocating for Hillary on social media, phone banking, registering voters, and helping get voters to the polls on election day, and staying focused and positive – we will prevail.

No, I can’t promise it. But I am very confident that on election night or soon after, we’ll all be watching Donald Trump give his pompous, arrogant concession speech and wondering how we ever thought that clown could really be elected and what all the angst and sleepless nights were all about.

And you’ll be right.

Kevin Kelton is co-host of the More Perfect Union podcast and founder of the Facebook political debate group, Open Fire.

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The Great Debate


In this episode of “A More Perfect Union,” the gang gives their post-mortem on the first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

If you like talking politics, join us on Facebook in OPEN FIRE, our political group where you can discuss news and politics with Kevin, D.J., Emily, Greg, Cliff, and lots of other smart, fun people.

Don’t Score the Debate Until SNL Does

Immediately after Monday night’s debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, the cable networks will use pundits and flash polls to try to tell you who won. Don’t believe them. On Tuesday they will parade out campaign surrogates and online polls to tell you who won. Don’t believe them. On Wednesday and Thursday they will use newspaper editorials and major national polls to tell you who won. And you may think by then you know how it all played out.

But you still won’t.

Don’t score the first presidential debate until Saturday Night Live lampoons it when the show returns for its 42nd season on October 1, and the news media reacts to that event. Only then will you know who really came out on top.

Though it’s only a comedy show, SNL has set the national perception for presidential debates going back four decades. Political pundits can analyze and deconstruct the real matchup, but well-written satire almost always creates the more lasting – and damaging – impression. Continue reading Don’t Score the Debate Until SNL Does

Stop Blaming Hillary for Iraq

I was on a thread in my Facebook political group, Open Fire, arguing with hardcore liberals who still blame Hillary Clinton for the Iraq War because of her vote for the 2002 Iraq War Resolution. But when I asked them these questions, I got nothing back:

1) Who did you vote for in 2004? If you voted for Sen. John Kerry and Sen. John Edwards, you voted for two of the senators who voted with Hillary for the War Resolution. So why was it okay to support them for the White House but not her? Continue reading Stop Blaming Hillary for Iraq

Born In the U.S.A.

On this week’s “A More Perfect Union” podcast, the gang discusses Donald Trump’s admission that Barack Obama was indeed born in the United States, the mass hysteria of hatred toward Hillary Clinton, whether Bernie Sanders can still move millennials back toward Clinton, and what we might see in the first presidential debate. Hosted by D.J. McGuire, Greg Matusak, Cliff Dunn, and Kevin Kelton.

Check out this episode!

If you like talking politics, join us on Facebook in OPEN FIRE, our political group where you can discuss news and politics with Kevin, D.J., Emily, Greg, Cliff, and lots of other smart, fun people.

Show Me That Voter

by Kevin Kelton

Show me that voter. Show me that guy who is now thinking, “Hm…I was going to vote for Hillary Clinton. I prefer her positions and her values, and I think she’d make a better president than Donald Trump. But now that she might be in less-than-perfect health, I think I have to vote for Trump. Because, should Hillary die in office, God forbid that Tim Kaine becomes president!”

Really? Do you really think that voting logic exists? I mean, sure, I guess in a country of 330 million people, there might be a handful of voters – even several dozen – who could come to that warped conclusion. Because any crazy thing you can think of will probably occur to some idiot someplace.

But really, does anyone in the news media or in politics really think that there is a treasure trove of leaning-Hillary voters out there who would have to toss a coin to decide whether to vote for Donald Trump or Tim Kaine?!

Continue reading Show Me That Voter

Hillary’s Health Scare

This is episode 51 of the “A More Perfect Union” podcast series. Hosts D.J. McGuire, Greg Matusak, Emily Brewer, Cliff Dunn, and Kevin Kelton discuss Hillary Clinton’s 9/11 health scare, Donald Trump’s performance at the Commander-in-Chief forum, Matt Lauer’s lousy job as moderator of that forum, and Gary Johnson’s Aleppo gaffe.

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Trump’s Taco Trucks

 

Segments:
Taco Truck Tuesday for the Trump campaign

Gary Johnson’s big endorsement

Great debate flops (including Ronald Reagan)

Who’d gain most if Johnson is in the debates?

Jill Stein’s city mixup

Why John Kasich is a donkey butt (of sorts)

Send us your questions!

Check out this episode

If you like talking politics, join us on Facebook in OPEN FIRE, our political group where you can discuss news and politics with Kevin, D.J., Emily, Greg, Cliff, and lots of other smart, fun people.