by Kevin Kelton

Next Tuesday in Las Vegas, Nevada, the Democrats will hold their first debate of the 2016 presidential primary season. But it’s already clear that the winner will be Bernie Sanders. Before a word is even spoken.

Though all five candidates on stage (or six if Joe Biden jumps in the race) will acquit themselves well and present fairly similar liberal positions, it is inevitable that the post-debate media spin will crown Sanders the victor.

Yup, Bernie won. Take it to the bank. If you’re in Las Vegas, put all your chips on the socialist. How can I state that with such certainty a week before the debate happens? Here’s how:

• The expectations game is working against Hillary Clinton. She’s the known quantity, the frontrunner who has debated on the national stage before and everyone expects to win. So anything less than an outright spanking of the other candidates will be spun as a loss for her.
• Whereas Clinton, Biden, Martin O’Malley, Jim Webb, and Lincoln Chafee are modulated, slow-speaking, thoughtful debaters, Sanders is a “hot” speaker. His fire-and-brimstone style will make them look tentative and programmed. Sanders will be using his booming voice and bombastic anger to put them on the defensive. Bernie’s “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore” speaking style will go over very well with viewers who are already soured on typical politicians. In fact, by the end of the night he may be the new Howard Beale.
• Because Hillary is the best known, most vetted candidate, she’s the only one who will face tough questions about her past and her alleged sins. Sanders and the others have not faced that kind of public scrutiny yet, so there is little for the moderators to confront them with. Just as Donald Trump faced the toughest questions in the first GOP debate, Hillary will be the one given the third degree in Nevada. I mean, really – how hard can you cross-examine Lincoln Chafee? And who would care?
• In today’s “throw the bums out” political climate, outsider candidates like Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson, and Bernie Sanders aren’t expected to offer detailed proposals to solve problems. All they have to do is identify problems and promise that they – and only they – have the magic beans to fix the world. Sanders is the master at identifying what’s wrong in America in populist terms. He’ll be spewing his patented “the top one-tenth of 1% owns the earth” style lines attacking income inequality and everyone one else will be forced to agree with him. (Because in a Democratic debate, you can’t rebut the idea that the system is stacked agains real Americans.) Sanders will be short on realistic solutions, but he’ll be selling his promise to take on “the big corporate interests” and accusing everyone else of being in their pockets.
• Real time “focus group” trend lines will be showing Bernie peaking every time he speaks, because righteous passion and energy always pushes the dials higher. (As happened for Carly Fiorina during the second GOP debate.) And post-debate focus groups (especially the stacked ones done by Frank Luntz on FOX News) will show “real voters” discovering Bernie Sanders for the first time and marveling at his “refreshingly authentic” angry profit persona. It’s almost guaranteed that at least one person will say, “I came in leaning toward Hillary, but now I want to learn more about Bernie.”
• During and after the debate, Facebook and Twitter will be dominated with Sander’s minions, who will Tweet every exchange as a Bernie victory and every utterance of Hillary’s as the words of a lying, flip-flopping, war-mongering, Wall Street loving, neocon stance. Facebook will be littered with “Feel The Bern” memes and profile shots emblazoned with Bernie’s name. Clinton supporters, who tend to be older and not as social media savvy, will be overwhelmed and drowned out on the Twitter feed. Then of course, the media will report that “Twitter is exploding” with pro-Sanders tweets. And the cycle feeds on itself.
• The media – especially Fox News and the conservative echo chamber – will also be frantically spinning the “Bernie kicked Hillary’s butt” narrative, as they would love nothing more than to see him become the Democratic standard bearer. Anyone who seriously believes the right would rather run against “private server” Hillary Clinton than “socialist” Bernie Sanders in a general election is living in a world of unicorns and tooth fairies.

So, yes – by all means, tune in and witness the debate for yourself. Weigh their presentations and come to your own conclusion about who would be the stronger candidate and better Commander-in-Chief. But don’t be surprised if the world tries to tell you that Bernie is the new Democratic heavyweight champ no matter what you think.

This is going to be one title bout where the challenger gets every benefit of the doubt. And he’ll win a unanimous decision on the judge’s very biased scorecards.

Make sure to listen to our More Perfect Union post-debate podcast on iTunes.